2022 election: John Fetterman-Dr. Mehmet Oz Pennsylvania Senate race narrows in new CBS poll

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Party bases are consolidating around their candidates in the Pennsylvania Senate race, now a toss-up match with Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman leading two points into their debate Tuesday night. He led by five points a month ago.

To the extent that there has been a change in behavior, it is partly caused by more Republicans “coming home” to Dr. Mehmet Oz: The percentage of Republicans who say they would vote for their candidate has risen to 94% from 87% last month.

In Tuesday night’s debate, the economy, gas prices, crime and abortion are the top topics people want to hear about — and most don’t care about hearing about Fetterman’s health or Oz’s hometown.

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Last month, voters said a debate was somewhat important — Republicans especially — and today voters will likely be watching it. Thirty percent of voters overall say they are very likely to vote. (Perhaps this will get even higher if Pennsylvania residents, at least in the Philadelphia area, remember that the World Series doesn’t start until Friday.) And they want to hear about economics, policing and crime, gas prices and abortion.

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Both candidates are enthusiastic. Oz’s voters are no more enthusiastic about him than before, even if they support him. And fewer Fetterman supporters are very enthusiastic about Fetterman, even if they support him. As with many competitions, campaigns often remind partisans of reasons to be negative towards the opposition, and that certainly seems to be the case here.

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The future electorate has become more partisan than last month — that is, the pool of likely voters is more dominated by those with ties to Republicans or Democrats — including those who say they will definitely vote or have already voted. More than nine in ten of each candidate’s backers say they wouldn’t consider voting the other way.

That equates to a turnout-based campaign in which few voters switch sides and fewer self-identified independent likely voters remain. The ones that are in the mix are more for Fetterman. Meanwhile, some voters, mainly Democrats, have already reported casting their votes by mail, which is reflected in the topline estimate.

This month, a slightly smaller majority says Fetterman is sane enough to serve, driven by Republicans now saying “no” in greater numbers — just a quarter of Republicans say they are — again suggesting campaign themes work with party bases, but not so much further than them.

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The economy and inflation remain the main concerns by wide margins. Crime is essentially unchanged in relative importance from last month. (It’s only two points higher and remains below the economy and inflation, all of which are also showing incremental gains.) However, that issue seems to cover partisans and could help Oz with the GOP base. While Republicans run ads about Fetterman’s approach to crime and criminal justice, it’s Republicans and Oz voters who are most likely to say the topic is more important. For Democrats and independents, the subject is comparably less important.

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Likewise, with ads run by Democrats regarding Oz’s views on abortion, it’s Democrats who are most likely to say this issue is important. It tops the Democrats’ priority list, and Fetterman maintains a big lead among voters who say abortion is very important.


This CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker survey was conducted with a representative statewide sample of 1,084 registered voters in Pennsylvania, interviewed between October 21 and 24, 2022. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, education level, and geography. region based on the US. Census Current Population Survey, as well as the 2020 presidential election. The margin of error is ±4.1 points.

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The Valley Voice
The Valley Voicehttp://thevalleyvoice.org
Christopher Brito is a social media producer and trending writer for The Valley Voice, with a focus on sports and stories related to race and culture.

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