A named tropical system is likely by Labor Day. Here’s how it could affect weekend plans


We realize talking about your Labor Day forecast a week out might be a little early, but with the tropics coming alive this week, there are some things we think should be on your radar.

The main concern is still far out in the Atlantic, but it has the best chance of becoming our next named storm (Danielle).

The disturbance continues its westward movement, then gradually shifts northwest toward the Leeward Islands over the course of the week.

The hurricane center gives it a 50% chance of becoming a tropical system within the next 48 hours and an 80% chance of forming within the next five days.

Right now, forecast models show that the storm will continue north of the Leeward Islands, make a turn to the northeast and stay out to sea.

It could interact with Bermuda, but at this point (keywords ‘now’) it poses no direct threat to the United States.

However, it could pose a rip current risk for parts of the East Coast, depending on how strong the storm gets and how close the storm gets to the US before turning away.

We’ve told you before that relying on a seven-day forecasting model is something we shouldn’t do because it’s most likely a “fantasy storm.” BUT we’re now within seven days, so the next few model runs will tell us a lot about what the storm might eventually do.

If there is indeed a hurricane off the coast on Labor Day, it could affect the US even without a direct hit.

Along the east coast, we could see gusts and even currents on the beaches, even if the storm stays far offshore.

The bigger the storm, the higher the seas and the stronger the rip currents.

The closer the storm gets to the US, the greater the effects will be.

I’m not saying this is what’s going to happen, I’m just saying that this is definitely worth checking out all week.

Development Potential in the Western Caribbean

Closer to home, the hurricane center is monitoring an area in the western Caribbean for potential development.

“Environmental conditions may support slow development of the system thereafter as it moves generally west-northwest across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula,” the Hurricane Center noted.

While it only has a 20% chance of development in the next five days, it will be something to watch as we head into the Labor Day weekend.

Even if the storm doesn’t develop, it will improve Texas rainfall by pumping extra moisture into the state.

This is similar to what happened to potential tropical cyclone four last weekend. (See more about Texas flooding potential below.)

Other areas to watch

There are two other areas where the Hurricane Center is looking at potential development.

One is a tropical wave just off the coast of Africa. The hurricane center gives it a 30% chance of developing within five days.

The other feature is about 600 miles east of Bermuda and causes some showers. However, further development is unlikely.

Strong winds at the highest levels and dry air are expected to limit significant development of this system as it drifts south and southwest across the central Atlantic in the coming days and is likely to disappear by the end of the week. the hurricane center. .

Strong winds high in the atmosphere typically kill tropical systems like this one, leaving the hurricane center saying it only has a 10% chance of developing within the next five days.

With so much to see in the tropics suddenly, it’s clear that we’re approaching the peak of hurricane season, which is September 10.

More floods possible for Texas

After severe flooding in Texas a week ago, more rain is on the way this week. The state can get soaked again. This time, however, the rose is further south, along the coast.

Parts of Texas fell as much as seven inches of rain this week, mostly in South Texas, in areas not as hard hit by last week’s flooding.

Much of the rain will fall on areas with severe or extreme drought.

The flood threat in the Lone Star State begins today, with areas like Houston, Galveston and Beaumont having a 50% chance of more than two inches of rain.

“Tropical moisture and a weak energy lobe in the upper levels will support numerous showers and thunderstorms across the central and northern coast of Texas to southwestern Louisiana today,” the Weather Prediction Center reported.

The downpours will be similar to what we saw last week in the Dallas and Jackson area, so areas in Southeast Texas should be very alert to the possibility of flash flooding.
Watch the video of last week’s flood

“By Tuesday, energy should move inland as the threat of heavy rain shifts to central and western Texas,” the Weather Prediction Center added.

Precipitation totals for Central and West Texas this week are expected to be 2 to 4 inches.

The possibility of more rain can arise with heavier downpours, or if storms begin to train over a certain area; when storms move over the same area for an extended period of time without relief, often resulting in flash flooding.

It is impossible to indicate where it could arise, so any area with a high flood potential should be on the lookout.

With all the rain leading up to Labor Day, you may be wondering what the holiday weekend itself has in store.

While difficult to predict so far, models show rain for the Gulf Coast continuing over the Labor Day weekend.

Most showers and storms will remain on the Texas and Louisiana coasts, and the eastern Gulf Coast will get more spotty showers.

We also look at the potential for the front to traverse the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast over the Labor Day weekend.

It can bring periods of rain, but also cooler temperatures on the back of the front.

The Valley Voice
The Valley Voicehttp://thevalleyvoice.org
Christopher Brito is a social media producer and trending writer for The Valley Voice, with a focus on sports and stories related to race and culture.


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