The Giants’ offer to the American League’s reigning MVP Aaron Judge is “supposed to be [in the] near $360 million,” reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The number of years on the contract is not clear, although recent reports have suggested Judge could push for a nine-year deal. That would put the potential average annual value of San Francisco’s offer in the ballpark of $40 million, or perhaps in the $36 million range if they extended the offer to ten years to address some of the AAV and luxury tax concerns. Reduce.
San Francisco has long been seen as the main threat to pull Judge away from the Yankees, given their increasing urgency to field a winner, the team’s wide-open wage prospects, and Judge’s fandom of the team as a child growing up in Northern California. Judge has met with both teams over the past week, and other than some loose connections to the Dodgers, there have been no concrete reports of other teams being involved in the mix.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that Judge only has two suitors. Coming off a 62-homer, .311/.425/.686 season that gave him his first MVP win, it stands to reason that the majority of teams would at least inquire about the possibility of a deal. However, given the heights to which his market appears to be rising, most clubs would certainly hesitate to make a competitive offer.
Yet today’s reveal that the Padres offered Trea Turner a $342 million deal that would have given him the third-largest guarantee in MLB history — only to be turned down in favor of the Phillies — has at least served as proof that another team is willing to commit to the top of the free broker market (albeit on a different player). There’s not yet a firm tie between the Padres and Judge, but with San Diego cornering the outfield market and showing willingness to sign an unprecedented $300 million+ third contract, it’s easy enough to speculate that the Friars could become a viable third party. participant in the bid.
Heyman suggests that even with the Giants’ huge roster, many in the industry still believe the Yankees are the favorites. The Yankees, for their part, of course remain hopeful that Judge will re-sign and spend his career in the Bronx, though recently renewed general manager Brian Cashman told reporters last night that Agent Page Odle has given the Yankees no guarantees that they will get the chance to match or exceed another team’s offer before Judge accepts (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com).
The Giants have committed about $133 million in salary for next year’s books and are expected to be $91 million shy of the first tier of luxury tax penalties, so an AAV for Judge in the top $30 million or even reaching $40 million wouldn’t put them anywhere near the tax line. However, Judge declined the Yankees’ qualifying offer, so he would cost the Giants their second-highest pick in next summer’s draft and also cause a $500K reduction in their international amateur free agent spending capacity.