Six pass catchers to consider fading in drafts


Perhaps Kelce qualifies more as an overrated fantasy player than the callous “bust”, but he will soon be 33 years old and is clearly in the downturn of his career – yet being drafted as a top-20 pick. Kelce’s yards per route run have decreased nearly 20 percent over the past three seasons Tyree Hill off the fieldand Kansas City added JuJu Smith-Schuster to play the slot during the low season.

Kelce is drafted higher than Mark Andrewswho is six years younger, lost Marquise Brown as a league and saw 15 goals in the end zone last season, compared to just four for Kelce. Make it meaningful!

Sutton’s ADP looked like one of the most egregious in recent memory for that Tim Patrick dropped for the season, but now he’s just regularly overvalued. Although it’s definitely a boost to have Russell Wilson as his quarterback, Sutton’s ADP treats him as a top-20 WR, which is very aggressive. Sutton’s target per route rate decreased by 38% and his yards per router run dropped from 2.10 to 0.48 (!) last season with Jeudy on the field.

In other words, even though Jeudy played through a severe ankle sprain, 83% of Sutton’s fantasy points came with his teammate from the field last season. While there’s been some Wilson/Sutton buzz this summer, there is a real argument the wrong Denver receiver is drafted first in fantasy competitions.

Allen has a safe floor and a star quarterback to throw at him, but this is a 30-year-old whose yards per route have dropped every season since 2017, finishing just 30th out of 90 qualified WRs last year. Most importantly, Allen’s targets and fantasy production dropped sharply once Joshua Palmer took over the role of LA’s WR3 for the last five weeks last season.

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In other words, Allen saw his goal per route drops from 27 percent to 20 percent with Palmer on the fieldand the sophomore wideout numbers to see much more action in 2022.

San Francisco 49ers: Deebo Samuel

Samuel is drafted as a borderline top-eight fantasy receiver despite no top-50 in routes running or top-25 in goals last season. And its role in this year’s passing game remains a question mark, with San Francisco turning to Trey Lancewho worked exclusively with Brandon Aiyuk all summer, while Samuel usually held out for a new contract. San Francisco’s New Starting QB Goes attack a whole different level of the field then Jimmy Garoppolo.

Trey Lance might not help Deebo Samuel’s fantasy prospects as much as some might think. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Samuel is a meter-after-catch dynamo which will be used all over the field, but last season was the first he didn’t miss a game. It was also the first time he ever saw more than 81 goals. Samuel somehow rushed to eight scores on just 59 attemptsand the 49ers’ RB room is going into 2022 much healthier and much deeper.

Samuel just isn’t expected to see nearly the same volume as other receivers lined up around him, making him an extremely risky second-round fantasy pick.

Seattle Seahawks: DK Metcalf

Metcalf is still drafted as a borderline top-20 fantasy receiver, despite Seattle’s loss Russell Wilson during the low season. Geno Smith has been given the name QB1 (and the alternative is hardly better), and Metcalf has seen his air yards per game are halved and his target share is falling below teammate Tyler Lockett with Smith playing quarterback.

Metcalf is talented enough to overcome his suddenly shaky situation (Seattle too) played by far the fewest games in the NFL last season), but realize he benefited greatly from a Hall of Fame quarterback who consistently targeted him in the end zone more often than any other WR in the league.

And we haven’t even started with Metcalf’s yet “nutrition” yet.

[2022 Fantasy Draft Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | DEFs | Ks]

Washington Commanders: Terry McLaurin

Scary Terry is one of the best wide receivers in football, but he’s drafted too high in fantasy, as if he’s no longer saddled with a bad quarterback situation. Carson Wentz was one of the league’s most inaccurate QBs last season and will now play outside and with a downgrade on the offensive line. Besides, rookie WR Jahan Dotson reportedly showed more chemistry with Wentzso I find it hard to rank McLaurin, who posted a 23-318-0 line over the last seven games last season, as a top-15 WR like his ADP.

Imagine drafting McLaurin ahead of time? Allen Robinson this year.

The Valley Voice
The Valley Voice
Christopher Brito is a social media producer and trending writer for The Valley Voice, with a focus on sports and stories related to race and culture.


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