Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.
Before we get into my props, there were two Thanksgiving specials that caught my eye on DraftKings that I want to cover.
Josh Allen is +240 to record the most passing yards on Thanksgiving, and Gabe Davis is +1300 to top the list in receiving yards.
I project Davis closer to +900 to top the receiving charts on Turkey Day. He has a wider range of outcomes than most players, so you could argue that should be lower.
Davis doesn’t need the volume of other receivers to win this bet given his great playing skills. There’s a scenario where he leads the list with something like 125 receiving yards going into the final game of the night. If so, you can hedge your bet by betting on Justin Jefferson getting yards over. If Jefferson falls below his total of 88.5, it is unlikely that anyone else will go above 125. If he receives between 89 and 124 yards, you win both bets.
The bet on Allen goes hand in hand with Davis. I’d say a fair price for Allen is closer to +200.
With that out of the way, here are my favorite props for all three Thanksgiving games.
Singletary is coming off a season-high 18 rushing tries against the Browns last week. It was only the third time he managed to achieve this total in 10 games.
Against Cleveland, Singletary benefited from Josh Allen recording season lows in passing (197) and rushing (seven) yards. I think we’ll see him bouncing back with a big enough game through the air and ground that he eats up Singletary’s workload.
Also, we saw second-round rookie James Cook record his best game of the season, making 11 carries for 86 rushing yards. Singletary dominates pass down and 2-minute work, but the Bills could continue to use Cook on early downs to keep the veteran fresh.
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Another thing that singletary is working against in this market is that he doesn’t get many tries on third or fourth and short. The Bills have a foolproof quarterback shortcut where they draft Gabe Davis behind Allen and drive the QB forward.
There are also some sneaky guardrails on this prop. If the Lions can keep it close, it will force the Bills into a pass-heavy game script.
When the Bills get a huge lead, they tend to bubble Singletary and let Cook dominate the work. Buffalo may also finally want to give Nyheim Hines some forwards. Any hasty attempts he gets will only help this prop.
I project Singletary for almost 12.5 rushing attempts and would bet this to -140.
I can’t think of a better way to spend Thanksgiving than sweating a Lawrence Cager prop over dinner (on the East Coast).
I think this prop offers sneaky value, as the Giants will likely be forced into a pass-heavy game script as 10-point underdogs.
Daniel Jones just lost his top target, Wan’Dale Robinson, for the rest of the season. That makes Darius Slayton the new go-to receiver, though it’s unknown who will be the No. 2 option.
Cager will remain the Giants’ leading tight end until rookie Daniel Bellinger returns. Cager routed on 70% of Jones dropbacks last week, and I expect to see similar usage with Robinson out.
The Cowboys have been the most pressing in the NFL this season. Jones has directed his tight side into a clean pocket 14% of the time, but that rises to 19% when under pressure.
Cager is a former wide receiver turned tight end. He is 5 feet 8 inches and weighs 220 pounds. He’s not there to block. Plus, for what it’s worth, he had the second most receiving yards in the preseason.
I’m projecting Cager for closer to 19.5 receiving yards here and like the top on his over.
Cousins has had a hard time under pressure this season. His yards per attempt drops from 7.1 with a clean pocket to 5.4 under pressure. With that, it came as no surprise that Cousins really struggled against the Cowboys, as Dallas leads the league in pressure percentage.
Cousins face another tough test against a Patriots defense ranked second in pressure percentage. To make matters worse, Christian Darrisaw, a stud left tackle, has already been ruled out.
As a result, I expect Minnesota to have a more conservative, run-heavy game plan against New England.
The Patriots’ offense could also struggle to pick up points, reducing the chances of Cousins getting into a game script where the Vikings start passing heavily and play from behind.
I project this closer to 238.5 passing yards.